Vancouver Real Estate Statistics – September 2024

What’s happening in the vancouver housing market as of today

I’m taking the long-winded real estate market statistics released by Greater Vancouver REALTORS® Association (previously the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver) and condensing it for you.

The housing market statistics for September were just released and the market seems to be trending sideways. If we are to compare month over month, prices are slightly trending downward as inventory starts to rise. Prices are down for all property types, detached homes, townhouses/duplexes and condos. Homebuyers remain on the sidelines. Prices are coming down slightly due to sales not keeping up with enough buyers in the market to purchase.

The part which sounds shocking is when we compare this past September to the 10 year average, we’re down substantially but this has been a consistent trend over the past couple years. Here’s the full breakdown.

In September 2024, Metro Vancouver’s real estate market experienced a 3.8% drop in home sales compared to the previous year, with 1,852 sales recorded—26% below the 10-year average. Despite reductions in mortgage rates, demand remained soft. However, new listings rose by 12.8%, and total inventory surged 31.2%. The sales-to-active listings ratio sat at 12.8%, nearing a buyer’s market. Home prices declined slightly, with detached homes at $2,022,200, apartments at $762,000, and townhouses at $1,099,200. Further interest rate cuts may stimulate demand later in 2024.

In my opinion there are a few things to take note of. First of all, buyers are still waiting on the sideline. This could be because of affordability due to higher borrowing costs, or simply knowing interest rates are trending downward, waiting for a more ideal time to buy. The inventory on MLS® is starting to increase. The increasing number of homes for sale is starting to push prices downward.

In the next section i’ll provide some of my opinions. The lowering of interest rates, increased inventory and lower prices is about to create a wave of activity in the Vancouver real estate market.

If you feel like watching the full report on the Vancouver real estate statistics for September 2024, i’m providing the video produced by the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® Association.

Could we see a real estate market turn-around coming soon?

We’ve been top Vancouver realtors, selling real estate for about 2 decades and have experienced the ups & downs of the Vancouver housing market. I think we have become quite good at seeing the trends which cause slow-downs, or often increases activity in the housing market. I have some thoughts and comments. I think we could be seeing a real estate market turn-around coming soon.

more homes for sale & Prices trending down

Looking at the real estate statistics, we’re seeing 2 important trends:
1) The number of properties on MLS® is starting to increase (build up of inventory)
2) Prices are trending downward slightly (lower home prices)

More homes for sale – Over the past couple years we’ve seen a slower real estate market but amazingly prices continued to stay strong. This was partly due to the lack of homes for sale. Yes, there were dramatically less sales, but similarly there was less homes being added to the MLS®. This kept home values fairly stable. Now we’re seeing a build-up of properties for sale.

There was a CBC broadcast which talked about the many years of low interest rates. This was a period of record breaking sales. A large number of people bought homes at this time. For those who already owned homes, they remortgaged to take advantage of the extremely lower interest rates. The report states that 3/4 of all mortgages will renew over the next 26 months.

A rash of mortgage renewals will cause more properties to go up for sale, for a couple reasons. For most, their mortgage payments will go up, by a lot in some cases. Yes, interest rates are coming down, but not enough to mitigate a payment increase. The CBC report explains this well, you might want to watch. Some within this group will sell under financial pressure. Think about this scenario, someone owns a primary residence and a couple investment properties. They all renew at higher rates. Is it still comfortable to hold those investment suites?

Here’s a second reason why these mortgage renewals will cause an increase in property sales. Many home sellers were hold off selling because they were locked into an ultra low mortgage, which they didn’t want to loose. After a renewal at the current market mortgage rates, there will no longer be an incentive to delay a move, or sale.

I thought the CBC broadcast explained the increased mortgage renewals well, i’ve pasted it below.

Prices trending down – If an increased number of homes go up for sale over a sustained period, likely the downward pressure on home prices will continue. It’s the simple law of supply and demand.

I don’t think Vancouver is going to experience dramatic price drops. I can see slight decreases in home prices in the short-term. The trend is already showing in the statistics. More properties being added to MLS® will ensure the trend continues. Homebuyers will welcome the lower prices.

affordability for homebuyers

Homebuyers have been sidelined due to the higher interest rates and record high Vancouver real estate prices. This has caused our housing market to slow-down to record levels but there seems to be blue skies on the horizon.

As mentioned above, real estate prices have been slowly softening. Even modest adjustments in real estate prices change the math and make buying more appealing. The slightly lower prices will definitely spur more housing sales.

What’s even more significant is the reduction in interest rates. When you combine lower borrowing costs and reduced real estate prices, affordability for homebuyers is becoming much better.

The bank of Canada has dropped the interest rate a couple times already, and has indicated these drops will continue. It’s possible we could also experience larger interest rate cuts in the coming months.

Here’s another CBC report which talks about the possibility of larger rate cuts, and better affordability for homebuyers.

The turn-around

It looks as though we’re going to see some significant interest rate cuts over the coming months. We are seeing more availability of real estate. We are also experiencing a reduction in median home prices. All of this dramatically creates better homebuyer affordability.

This is welcomed news for people considering a departure from the sideline. I think we’re going to see a tremendous number of buyers entering the real estate market. I feel we’re going to start feeling the energy in the Vancouver real estate market in the coming months. I’ll keep you updated!

If you’re considering buying or selling your Vancouver home, feel free to contact me today for advice!